Alphaliner has cut its forecast for global container throughput growth this year to 2.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent. The adviser said the first quarter's weakness and the impact of the u.s.-china trade war were taking their toll.

According to data from more than 250 global ports surveyed by the consultancy, growth averaged just 2.8% in the first three months of this year compared with the same period last year.

Alphaliner also points out that the rate of growth is "unevenly distributed between regions." "There has been negative traffic growth in several emerging ports, dragging down global growth rates," Mr Alphaliner said.

Middle eastern ports fared worst, with their Numbers shrinking by a whopping 10.1% compared with the first quarter of 2018.

Trade volumes fell 4.4 per cent in Africa and 1.1 per cent in Oceania, while exports from South African ports plunged 16 per cent. The negative growth of Australian ports such as Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and fremantle has affected the throughput of Oceania.

However, Asia, Europe and the trans-pacific region reported growth of 3.5 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively.

In the case of a trade war between the United States and China, the United States has threatened to impose tariffs on about $325 billion in additional goods since May 15, when it raised tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent. China has raised tariffs on some imports from the United States since June 1. Alphaliner expects further throughput degradation as a result.

"The escalation of the trade war between China and the United States is expected to lower the growth rate of container traffic in both countries in the coming quarters," Alphaliner said. The consultant noted that spot prices across the Pacific between Asia and the west coast of the United States have fallen 15 percent in the past two weeks, with shipping alliance group announcing two blank sailings next month and predicting lower sales.

(article source: shipping online)